Argentina vs. Canada odds, live stream, lineups, picks: where to watch Messi, Copa America online, TV channel

The first Copa America semi-final is a classic case of David versus Goliath. Reigning champions and the world’s top-ranked team Argentina face the Cinderella story of the tournament in Canada for a spot in the final. To no one’s surprise, Argentina have barely put a foot wrong on their way to the semi-finals, relying on a handful of attacking talents while Lionel Messi takes on more of a behind-the-scenes role in what could be his final international tournament. They will of course be the big favorites against Canada, who they beat 2-0 to open the competition. It’s a surprising rematch of the first game since Canada has gone on an unexpected flight to the final four just weeks into Jesse Marsch’s tenure as head coach. It makes for an intriguing clash between two teams with the same ambition, but different points to prove.

Here’s what you need to know before you tune in.

How to watch and odds

• Date: Tuesday July 9 | Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Place: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
• TV: FS1 | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
• Chances: Argentina -310; Sign +390; Canada +850

Storylines

Argentina: Messi remains the focal point of the team, but Argentina’s biggest strength in the Copa America is their attacking depth. Lautaro Martinez has become the tournament’s most reliable goalscorer with four goals, while Alexis Mac Allister leads his team with two assists. Messi has just one assist to his name – for Martinez’s goal in the opener against Canada – but he was no slouch, creating 11 chances in three games, the third most in the league.

Their depth allows them to retain their title as favorites to win the whole thing, although a The victory after a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw against Ecuador caused some alarm. They were defeated 9-8 by Ecuador and also lost the expected goals battle by 1.73 to 0.87, but a match against Canada is expected to provide a perfect opportunity to bounce back with a place in the final on the line.

Canada: Canada knows they are the underdogs, but they also know they have nothing to lose on Tuesday, not even the chance to extend their Cinderella streak for another game. Marsch and his team will take confidence from their last meeting with Argentina, even though they lost 2-0. Canada had 10 shots and 1.16 expected goals that night and could have scored on a better final night.

Despite the excitement of an underdog story, their inability to score is likely an asterisk on their overall performance to date. They have put just 35% of their shots on target and are underperforming in terms of expected goals ratio, which stands at 5.68, despite only scoring twice. They boasted the potential to do real damage but struggled to close games against lackluster Peru and Chile, both of whom were down to ten, and Venezuela. It highlights their status as the underdogs against Argentina, but from a bigger picture perspective, these countries feel like decent building blocks about a month into Marsch’s campaign, and it will be exciting to see where Canada can go from here after the Copa America.

Projected setups

Argentina: Emiliano Martinez, Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico, Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Nicolas Gonzalez, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez

Canada: Maxime Crepeau, Alistair Johnston, Moise Bombito, Alphonso Davies, Jonathan Osorio, Stephen Eustaquio, Richie Laryea, Jonathan David, Jacob Shaffelburg, Cyle Larin

Prediction

This is the game Argentina must lose, and given the talent on the squad and the ambition this group has after winning multiple trophies in recent years, it seems unlikely they will squander the opportunity to win back-to-back Copa America finals to fetch. Expect an entertaining match against the new Canada, but one that will end as expected – with Argentina on top. Choose: Argentina 2, Canada 0