Gary Oldman in ‘Slow Horses’.
Thanks to Apple
Entertainment
Drama Predictions for 2024 Emmys Lead Actor
Variety The Awards Circuit section is home to all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual participant. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the relevant ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMIES | TONYS
Emmy predictions for 2024:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: August 7, 2024): Hiroyuki Sanada, the star and producer of “Shogun,” is ready to make history. As the leading candidate for Best Drama Lead Actor, with the series itself leading the race for Best Drama, a win in either category would mark the first time an Asian individual has achieved this feat in the same year (particularly in the Drama categories) . Last year, Steven Yeun and Ali Wong made history by winning the major categories for a limited series with “Beef,” which also won the top prize in its category, which they executive produced. Will that positive trend continue?
More to come.
The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will take place over two evenings, September 7 and 8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards airs Sunday, September 15 on ABC.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category at Variety Awards circuit.
-
Image credits: Netflix
And so are the predicted nominees
Rank Series 1 Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shogun” (FX) 2 Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) 3 Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix) 4 Walton Goggins — “Fallout” (Prime Video) 5 Donald Glover – “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) 6 Idris Elba — “Hijacking” (Apple TV+) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series -
Eligible Artists (Lead Drama Actor)
Image credits: HBO
**Officially submitted and on the ballot for the Emmy nominations.
- David Ajala — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- Björgvin Arnarson – “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Zackary Arthur – “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Jason Beghe — “Chicago PD” (NBC)
- Adrien Brody — “Saying Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- Josh Brolin — “Out of Reach” (Prime Video)
- Santiago Cabrera – “The Cleaning Lady” (Fox)
- Deon Cole — “Average Joe” (BET+)
- Gordon Cormier — “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
- MeKai Curtis — “Power Book III: Raising Kenan” (Starz)
- James Badge Dale – “Hightown”
- Josh Dallas – “Manifesto”
- Hugh Dancy – “Law & Order” (NBC)
- Michael Dorman – “Joe Pickett”
- Jamie Dornan — “The Tourist” (Max)
- Idris Elba – “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
- Ansel Elgort – “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- Giancarlo Esposito — “Parish” (AMC)
- Colin Farrell – “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
- Nathan Felder — “The Curse” (Showtime)
- Nathan Fillion — “The Rookie” (ABC)
- Demetrius Flenory Jr. – “BMF”
- Manuel Garcia-Rulfo — “The Lincoln Lawyer” (Netflix)
- Paul Giamatti — “Billions” Showtime)
- Donald Glover – “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- Walton Goggins – “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- Daniel Henney — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
- Jay Hernandez – “Magnum PI”
- Sam Heughan – “Outlander” (Starz)
- Tom Hiddleston – “Loki” (Disney+)
- Freddie Highmore — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
- Isaiah Hill – “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- Quincy Isaiah — “Making Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- O’Shea Jackson Jr. — “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- Cosmo Jarvis – “Shogun” (FX)
- Joel Kinnaman — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- Taylor Kinney – “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
- Luke Kleintank — “FBI: International” (NBC)
- Andrew Koji – “Warrior” (Max)
- John Krasinski – “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
- Peter Krause – “9-1-1” (ABC)
- Raymond Lee — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- John Leguizamo — “The Green Veil” (The Network)
- Damian Lewis – “Billions” (Showtime)
- Andrew Lincoln – “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
- Eoin Macken – “La Brea” (NBC)
- Jesse L. Martin — “The Irrational” (NBC)
- James McArdle – “Sexy Beast”
- Zahn McClarnon – “Dark Winds” (AMC)
- Dylan McDermott – “FBI: Most Wanted”
- Ted McGinley – “The Baxters”
- Christopher Meloni – “Law and Order: Organized Crime”
- Ben Mendelsohn — “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
- Shemar Moore – “SWAT”
- Jeffrey Dean Morgan – “The Walking Dead: Dead City” (AMC)
- Anson Mount — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- Chad Michael Murray – “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Babs Olusanmokun — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- Timothy Olyphant — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
- Lee Pace — “Foundation” (Paramount+)
- Mandy Patinkin – “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Scott Patterson – “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- Norman Reedus – “The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon” (AMC)
- John C. Reilly — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- George Rexstrew – “Dead Boy Detectives” (Netflix)
- Alan Ritchson – “Reacher” (Prime video)
- Ramón Rodríguez – “Will Trent” (ABC)
- Kurt Russell – “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
- Hiroyuki Sanada – “Shogun” (FX)
- Pablo Schreiber – “Halo” (Paramount+)
- Tom Selleck – “Blue Blood” (CBS)
- Joseph Sikora — “Power Book IV: Power” (Starz)
- Morgan Spector — “The Gilded Age” (Max)
- Lakeith Stanfield – “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
- Corey Stoll — “Billions” (Showtime)
- Wilmer Valderrama – “NCIS” (CBS)
- Ken Watanabe – “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- Titus Welliver — “Bosch: Legacy” (Freevee)
- Dominic West – “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Zeeko Zaki – “FBI” (NBC)
-
More information (main drama actor)
Image credits: Courtesy of Apple TV+
Category winner 2023: Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy – “Succession” (HBO) – Season 4
Emmy Awards 2024 Calendar and Timeline (All Dates Subject to Change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- February 29: Entries open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Voting in the nomination round begins
- June 24: Nominating round voting ends at 10:00 PM PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions in the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available to watch.
- August 15: Final round voting begins.
- August 26: Final round voting ends at 10:00 PM PST.
- September 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, September 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards air on ABC.
Emmy prediction categories
Drama Comedy Limited/Movie Drama series Comedy series Limited or anthology series Main actor (drama) Main actor (comedy) Main actor (limited, film) Lead actress (drama) Lead actress (comedy) Lead actress (limited, film) Supporting role (drama) Supporting role (Comedy) Supporting role (limited, film) Supporting role (drama) Supporting role (comedy) Supporting Actress (limited, film) Directing, writing (drama) Directing, writing (comedy) Directing, writing (limited, film) Guest acting (Drama) Guest acting (comedy) Television movie Talk series and scripted variety Game show/host Reality programs Documentary (series, special, hosted non-fiction, exceptional merit) Variety Special (live, pre-recorded) Animation/voice-over Primetime Emmy 2024 Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are presented by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Founded in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are divided into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for Outstanding Performance and Production; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which recognize significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period generally runs from June 1 to May 31 of each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has more than 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including artists, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
