Jamie Dimon still sees a recession on the horizon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that he still believes the chance of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is around 35% to 40%, making a recession the most likely scenario in his view.

When CNBC’s Leslie Picker asked Dimon if he had changed his view from February that markets were too optimistic about the risks of a recession, he said the odds were “about the same” as his earlier call.

“There is a lot of uncertainty,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to the geopolitics, the housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections; all these things are causing some consternation in the markets.”

Dimon, leader of the largest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic “hurricane” since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while the credit crunch – Card borrower defaults are on the rise, America is not currently in a recession.

Dimon added that he is “a little skeptical” about whether the Federal Reserve can return inflation to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy and the military.

“There’s always a wide range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I’m completely optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be fine. Of course I have a lot of sympathy for people losing their jobs. You don’t want a hard landing.”