Who will win the WNBA Championship? Aces? Freedom? Bold predictions from our experts as play resumes

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball.

After an exciting end to the Olympic basketball tournament in Paris, the gold medal-winning Americans are once again scattered across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic breakthrough with the league’s best record (21-4) and are looking to claim the franchise’s first title. After a somewhat slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are in danger of falling into fifth place at 16-8, but they could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the 1997-2000 Houston Comets. A number of other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are sandwiched between the two 2023 Finals contenders with significant ambitions, and those in the bottom half of the standings are looking to throw their hat into the mix.

Before games resume on Thursday, here are five predictions for the rest of the season.

Which team will make a strong surge in the second half?

Sabreena Trader: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’re plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the floor. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense all season, despite a July slump in Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule: a .441 winning percentage awaits, per tankathon.

TWICE. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/Iqs4yFB8Tm

— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) August 11, 2024

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you circle a franchise in the 7-12 range as a team that could look drastically different in the second half of the season, keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and finished in ninth place. The biggest reason to anticipate a positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence, Atlanta won just one game. She returned for the final competition before the Olympic break, before helping the US 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as important, key offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played just four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be a major jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was 11th in the offensive rankings through the date of Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta is going to be a dangerous group to slow down.

What is your biggest question?

Pickman: Will currently unsigned Olympic stars lift a franchise during the stretch run?

Maybe this is a bit of a recency bias, but I’m looking to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help out during the second half. Despite the priority rule taking effect in May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they wish, due to a small loophole in the CBA. Of course, not all WNBA contenders have the cap space to sign any of these players, but all three can be difference makers. Johannes has proven to make an impact coming off the bench at New York Liberty. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking skills in the Olympics, and she has produced in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson at the Paris Olympics.

Trader: Do the Aces have enough in the tank to three-peat?

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes respectively in the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied with 16 as many games remaining in the league and has the third-toughest schedule. The Aces are currently in fifth place, so they’ll need to skip at least one team to gain home field advantage in the first round, and possibly two more for home court in the WNBA semifinals. As defending champions, they are already getting the best of every opponent, and now they have to make up ground against a group that has been hard pressed for the first part of the season. It seems foolish to argue against Wilson and Co. after the successes of the past two years, but 2024 was an extra challenge from the start. On a neutral site at halftime, I’d pick Las Vegas against any other team, but conditions won’t be as favorable for the Aces in the future. Being able to come from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this team.

Who will be Rookie of the Year?

Trader: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps never before has a newcomer entered the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, but she also carried the weight of the entire league on her shoulders. She has achieved results in so many ways, skyrocketing the popularity of the WNBA and steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists while pacing rookies in points per game. Clark also leads freshmen in usage (24.8 percent) while posting the highest effective field goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who are averaging at least 25 minutes in at least 18 games this season.

Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue with, but this isn’t a clear-cut case as Angel Reese has had a bigger impact on the team’s success. Reese has a net rating of plus-3.4, while Clark trails at minus-6.8. Additionally, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral regardless of whether Clark is on or off the court. However, team context isn’t enough to overcome what Clark accomplished at the toughest position and while at the top of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It feels like forever since Clark last played in a WNBA game. But lest anyone forget, in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new WNBA single-game record with 19 assists. Having to play eleven games in twenty days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected entering this season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint, which ended June 2, Indiana ranks sixth in net rating and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in total points, while playing the second-most minutes of anyone in the WNBA. If she is able to continue to improve in her first half like she did throughout June and July, Indiana could also become the kind of opponent that no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.

Who wins MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question during the first half of the season was whether there will be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have become very close in recent years, but with a second half of the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.

Trader: A’ja Wilson.

Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can now start creating this trophy for Wilson, as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA Championship?

Trader: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 Finals, but here I am, tempted by the Liberty again. They have had an excellent first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh in the final month heading into the play-offs. Las Vegas retains the head coach advantage and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York may have the better team this time.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team to date, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued rise, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable backup options helping New York get off to a fast start. But the Aces didn’t do enough to sway me from my preseason title choice. Sure, the eight losses are the most they’ve had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a net rating of plus-12.3, a mark slightly higher than the Liberty. Wilson is better and so is Jackie Young. The Aces may not have a home court this entire postseason, but I’m not convinced that will matter either.

(Photo by A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)