Some coaches worry about the “deterioration of football,” but data tells a complex story

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ATHENS, Ga. – Kirby Smart made it sound terrible. On paper, Smart coaches the most talented college football team in America. But when he looked at his squad this month – deep into the squad – his fears were confirmed: fewer people are playing football, and that is affecting the quality of the game.

“I feel like we have less depth than ever before, and that’s a common theme when we talk to other coaches,” Smart said. “I call it the deterioration of football.”

A high school coach from Georgia echoed this sentiment.

“There’s definitely a decrease in the number of kids playing the game,” said Adam Carter, the coach at Lowndes High in Valdosta. “I think there are several reasons. Football is hard work, it’s summer and the number of parents in this generation don’t let their children play at a young age. This means they only play baseball, basketball, football, etc. and never step foot on a football field again as they get older.”

So are they right? Even now that football has never been more popular to watch and has never made more money, are fewer people playing? And is this a huge warning sign for the future of the game?

The data tells a complex story (and several other high school coaches contacted say they have record numbers of players).

“We’re encouraged by the numbers out there and the numbers of people playing,” said Steve Hatchell, head of the National Football Foundation.

Kirby Smart is entering his ninth season as Georgia’s coach. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Whatever the case, match officials acknowledge the concerns and say they will continue to take steps to make the game safer.

“There’s just a general understanding that we had to make changes in player behavior for the sake of the athletes and to keep the game viable,” said Steve Shaw, NCAA coordinator and head of the football rules committee. “I would like to tell you that nothing is more important.”

First, take a look at the data:

• Participation in high school football, after declining from 2015 through 2022, has increased slightly over the past two years: 1,031,508 played 11-man football during the 2023 season, an increase of about 3,000 from the previous season, according to data collected by the National Federation for Secondary Schools.

• The downside: The numbers are still down from 1,136,301 in 2009, and when you take population growth into account, this is a lower percentage of the available talent pool.

• At the same time, the number of colleges and universities sponsoring football teams has continued to rise: 774 this season, including six new ones this fall, with 51 new programs since 2008, according to the National Football Foundation. And the number of FBS (formerly Division IA) schools has grown from 112 in 1998 to 134 this year as more schools chase the dollars in the game.

So there are more college teams, but a static pool of talent. The obvious conclusion: Smart coaches and fellow coaches may be right, because the supply of talent has not kept up with demand.

Another factor, as Carter noted, is that kids don’t play football until later, or at least soccer, whether it was in middle school or even high school. Smart pointed to regulations at the high school level, aimed at safety, for the number of practices per week and the amount of tackling and physical contact.

“Middle schools don’t have as many opportunities to develop kids because their practice regimen and practice schedule is more demanding,” Smart said. “It’s a trickle-up effect, so we’re getting the guys from the high school level.”

It should be pointed out that Smart doesn’t necessarily have a problem with that. He has often talked about wanting the game to be safe for his son, who is 12 and played football. Smart sits on the NCAA rules committee and has helped draft rules aimed at making the game safer.

The NCAA’s most tangible change was the targeting rule, which went into effect in 2013 as a 15-yard penalty and was automatically ejected a year later. Fans, coaches and players have maligned the rule, but it goes nowhere because it works.

“I know fans often don’t like targeting. But honestly, this is one of the best rules we have in place,” Shaw said.

The rule was intended to change behavior away from headhunters and dangerous hits, and Shaw pointed to both data and anecdotal evidence that it has worked. The number of targeting calls has declined over the past four years, reaching 0.16 per game last season. And it’s not because the referees look the other way, but because players have adjusted their play because of the rule.

“That’s really good for our game,” Shaw said. “What we’ve seen is the behavior of players has changed, in their technique, how they block, how they tackle, their approach, how they use their helmet.”

In addition to targeting, the rules committee has continually studied changes for safety purposes. It has made changes to the below-the-waist blocking rules to reduce knee injuries and eliminate blind blocking.

The number of plays per game was looked at and described as ‘exposures’. There was an attempt to get fewer, mainly for safety reasons, but more attention is being paid to making playing times shorter. Thanks to the changes, the committee averaged 4.5-5 plays out of games, most notably not stopping the clock on first downs. Fans complained about shorter games, but the goal of less exposure was achieved, so that won’t change either.

“The progress we’ve made there has been really good for our game and maybe even saved our game,” Shaw said.

There has also been a focus on equipment, especially helmet technology. Shaw predicts that in a few years there will be position-specific helmets, based on data currently being collected on the head impact each position poses. For example, a safety needs a different helmet than a lineman because they don’t have the repeated hits of a lineman, but the safety needs a helmet to account for hits while running.

All this, of course, followed years of bad publicity about safety in the game. And while it had a tangible impact on participation, the data suggests the shift is possible, and not just at the high school level.

The Sports and Fitness Industry Association, which tracks participation at all youth levels, provided data showing:

• Participation rates of 13-17 year olds in tackle football fell between 2012 and 2017, but then increased over the following six years.

• Participation rates for 6-12 year olds in tackle football had been “flat to slightly up” over the past 12 years.

• Participation in tackle football declined after 2010, “but the decline has stopped and participation has stabilized in recent years” and participation has increased every year since 2020.

“This set of data conclusively shows that the conversation about tackle football participation has dropped dramatically and is on a consistent downward trajectory is simply not true,” the SFIA’s Tom Cove wrote in a report. “And after some issues surrounding concussion from 2011 to 2017, tackle football participation numbers are fairly stable and generally good.”

Hatchell pointed to flag football as a growing sport. The sport will be part of the 2028 Olympics, and the number of high school students playing flag football more than doubled last year to just under 43,000.

‘It explodes. Not just growing, but exploding,” Hatchell said.

Hatchell said he and other football advocates do not see flag football as a long-term replacement for tackle football, but rather work in conjunction with it. There is agreement within the entire football world about making the game increasingly safer, so that parents are willing to let their children play. The game’s popularity, at least in terms of viewership and attendance, puts the sport in a good position to risk those changes and sacrifice parts of the game if it means fewer injuries.

That doesn’t change. And the game doesn’t go back to the way it was.

“As a parent of someone who has played, you encourage him to play tough and strong. But you want it to be safe,” Hatchell said. “That’s the most important thing. And I think the rule changes have been very good at that.”

(Top photo: Andrew Nelles / USA Today)