Agricultural production remained flat in the first quarter due to the El Niño attack

The agriculture of THE PHILIPPINEStural output may have been Flat in the Ffirst quarter, amid the impact of the El Niño dry spell on the sector, especially on palay production, analysts said.

“Agricultural production in terms of growth should be around 1.8% in the first quarter. It could have been higher, but El Niño contributed to a lack of water, causing production to decline,” former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said in a text message.

If achieved, this would be slower than the 2.1% annual growth in the value of agricultural output in the first quarter of 2023, but faster than the 0.7% growth in October to December 2023.

Agriculture accounts for about a tenth of gross domestic product and about a quarter of all jobs. The Philippine Statistics Authority will release this Fagriculture in the first quarter and Fproduction data on May 8.

“Overall growth could be positive Fsure, but it can stay that way Flat – almost 0.5-1%, which reflects 2023 figures,” Roy S. Kempis, director of the Center for Business Innovation at the University of Angeles, said in a Viber message.

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said agricultural production could have shrunk under dry conditions.

“Climatic disruptions have had a negative impact on agriculture in recent months, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decline in overall agricultural growth in recent months. Ffirst quarter,” he said in a Viber message.

He said the impact of the weather event is expected to last until this quarter.

“We will use the total eFIt will only work if the situation normalizes, probably in the second semester,” he added.

According to the latest Department of Agriculture (DA) bulletin, agricultural damage due to El Niño amounted to $5.9 billion as of April 30.

The agency said volume losses of agricultural commodities had reached 255,467 tonnes (MT), with rice having the biggest impact.Finfected harvest, accounting for 53.2% of the total.

The state weather bureau said that although the El Niño event is weakening, its effects are expected to last until August.

RICE, CROPS MOST CONCERNED
Mr Dar said rice production has declined during the dry season harvest.

“This will be aFaffect our rice supply during the lean months of the year. Same for corn: it’s aFaffected by El Niño, which will result in lower production,” he said.

“(The) government needs to invest more in water harvesting structures, including solar-powered irrigation systems, as well as building more electronic systems.ffcient irrigation systems,” Mr Dar added.

Crops account for more than half of the value of agricultural production in the country, while the share of palay or unmilled rice is about 30% and corn at 5.5%.

“The lack of rain from February and the increase in temperatures by March 2024 were detrimental to the crop sector,” Kempis said.

He added that the dry spell affected crops, especially rice and maize, during their maturation and reproduction phase.

“El Niño affected production during the reproductive and maturity stages in Palay. In maize, one end (the tops) of many cobs where the silk comes out was damaged to the extent that they were considered condemned,” Mr Kempis said, citing DA reports.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary and spokesman Arnel V. de Mesa said unmilled rice production is unlikely to fall below 20 million tons this year despite the dry weather.

“Our target is similar or slightly higher than what we harvested last year: 20.06 million tons,” he said Business.

Meanwhile, the fishing sector likely continued to contract in the first quarter, the analyst said.

“With the Ffishing ban in eFfect partially covered Ffirst quarter plus the limited access to traditional Ffishing grounds in the West Philippine Sea, output ii the FThe fishing sector will not deliver positive results,” Mr Kempis said.

Fishery production in the Ffirst quarter was aFinfluenced by both El Niño and the closed situation Ffishing season, Mr. Dar said.

The government imposes a three-month closed season to repopulate certain areas Fis kind. Fishing bans will be announced in Northern Palawan, Ilocos, Negros Occidental, Capiz and Cebu in the fourth quarter.

Closed seasons are authorized by Republic Act No. 8550 or the Fisheries Act.

The DA approved a fish import quota of 25,000 tonnes for the fourth quarter to boost supply.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY
On livestock and poultry, Mr Kempis said higher temperatures may have had a limited impact on these sectors.

“Although temperatures can affect backyard livestock and poultry production, they are more stable (not fluctuating); with good management of livestock and poultry, backyard sector production will be a source of growth,” he said.

However, Mr Dar said African swine fever (ASF) remains a major problem for pig farmers. “Intensity management and control are needed,” he added.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. previously said the government would roll out ASF vaccines from Vietnam by June or July.

As of April 15, four regions were included in the red zone FAccording to the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), there are five provinces or ten municipalities. Red zones are areas with conFprevent the outbreaks of ASF,

Gregorio A. San Diego Jr., president emeritus of the United Broiler Raisers Association, said poultry production fell during the period, resulting in higher imports.

“There is a decline in performance, especially in conventional poultry houses, but our bigger problem is the oversupply of broilers and especially eggs that has resulted in very low farm prices,” he said in a Viber message.

Chicken imports totaled 128.51 million kilograms Ffirst quarter, according to the BAI. Turkey shipments amounted to 307,835 kilos and duck shipments to 33,375 kilos. — Adrian H. Halili