Bold predictions from the Premier League: Chelsea struggles with transfers, Alexander Isak scores goals for Newcastle, more

The Premier League makes its return on Friday. Manchester United hosts Fulham at Old Trafford. With everyone wanting to overtake Manchester City in the league, there have been fewer major signings due to the impact of the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), which limits spending, under the threat of points deductions, to ensure teams balance outbound sales with incoming transfers.

In recent years the Premier League has been full of stars joining, but these rules make it harder for a team like Chelsea to buy a star like Napoli striker Victor Osimhen without first opening the door on a large part of their current squad to send out. Because of these rules, there hasn’t been the kind of Premier League off-season turmoil that fans are used to, so making bold predictions is a little more difficult than usual.

Fortune may favor bold predictions, but sweeping predictions sometimes require significant changes, and there hasn’t been much of that this summer. For some teams that’s a good thing, as consistency improves what a side like Newcastle United can do next season, but for others, stagnation could prove fatal.

So let’s take a look at some predictions for the new season:

Alexander Isak will compete for the Golden Boot

While this may not be an extremely bold statement, it would be an understatement to say that last season was disappointing for Newcastle United. It started with so much promise due to the qualification for the Champions League, matches and injuries piled up and the lack of depth in the squad quickly became apparent. An important bright spot was the performance of Alexander Isak in the lead. He formed an impressive partnership with Anthony Gordon and was able to show he can score among the Premier League’s best in a 21-goal season.

Looking at Isak’s xG, he performed exactly as he should and with another season of consistency with the Magpies, this season’s performance could be even better. Isak was the most accurate shooter in the league among players who made more than 50 shots, 55% of which were on target. While not every shot on goal is the same, good things happen when you have a strong player who can get into space and test the goalkeeper.

Catching Erling Haaland, who I expect to score 30 goals, will be a tough task, but there’s no reason why Isak can’t score 20 or more on his own if he stays healthy. Isak’s 21-goal season, which is coming into its own under Eddie Howe, may seem like an outlier as his next highest total at the age of 20 was seventeen goals at Real Sociedad, but this season he will prove that it is actually a new trend.

Aston Villa is missing out on European football

Aston Villa was one of the surprise teams of the Premier League last season. He crashed into the top four and secured Champions League football for the first time since the 1982–83 season. While it is an impressive achievement, it is one that will push the depth of the squad to its limits after Unai Emery already managed to see the team exceed expectations last season. Looking around the league, only Arsenal and Manchester City performed better than their expected goals than Aston Villa, who scored 76 goals from and xG of 64.72.

Had Villa scored closer to expectations they would have been a mid-table side and that was before they started their busy summer. Leon Bailey and Douglas Luiz were among the main overachievers, but Luiz has now moved to Juventus with the likes of Ross Barkley, Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen. For this season to be successful, a lot will depend on the improvement of Morgan Rogers, who is able to keep Bailey healthy and get at least a few of these eight newcomers to the roster.

There is a real star in Ollie Watkins and as long as he gets the ball in good areas, Villa will score their goals, but everything has to come together just right to maintain the success of last season. If Villa can’t do that and Newcastle and Manchester United get closer to where they should be, you can easily expect a defeat.

Chelsea disappointed by Pedro Neto

When healthy, Pedro Neto is one of the most electric players in the Premier League. The problem is that Neto has only logged more than 1,000 competitive minutes twice in his career, despite being a big part of the lineup when healthy. Neto was impressive on the pitch with 11 goals and 19 assists in the Premier League during five seasons at Wolves, but Chelsea’s investment is like buying a starter and not a starter.

Neto’s underlying numbers show he could also regress, assisting nine goals from an xA of 3.7. Add that to Chelsea’s uncertain squad and the battle of four players to start in his position, and there isn’t much to like here. This applies to most things around Chelsea, where Todd Boehly throws money at the wall and sees what sticks, but when signings for long-gone managers Graham Potter and Mauricio Pochettino are still floundering, it means heavy investment for new manager Enzo Maresca too many new faces at Stamford Bridge.

Even if Neto can get through the season healthy, Chelsea will need a huge performance to justify the reported $69 million fee for his services. History shows that the Blues will get around 25 games out of Neto this season, so they will have to use them wisely.

Bournemouth will fight for Europe

Speaking of boldness: it doesn’t get much bolder than the Cherries. Bournemouth, who were already vindicated by Gary O’Neil and hired Andoni Iraola, will now have to replace much of the attacking production of Dominic Solanke, who moved to Tottenham last summer. It could come from a few places, as his replacement is already on the roster in forward Enes Unal, if the forward can stay healthy. Unal played in 16 league games for Bournemouth last season, scoring two goals and assisting two more, but history shows that as a leader he could score 15 goals.

Beyond him, more will be needed from wingers like Antoine Semenyo, but that’s where Iraola’s tactics come into play. Bournemouth want to play on the front foot and push the tempo with smart movements in possession, leaving space for players to contribute. Adding a talented young player like Dean Huijsen in defense will also improve their ball possession play as he adapts to the Premier League, giving Iraola more opportunities to build up in attack.

There may be no real star in this team, but that makes the Cherries even more dangerous. Any member of the squad can hurt you on any given day and that’s what makes them so difficult to play against.