Champions League corner picks: Why Bayern Munich is more important than Real Madrid ahead of PSG goals

This week is the semi-finals of the Champions League and between the two matches we have a little bit of everything.

There’s the semi-final that could easily serve as a final in most seasons, pitting Spanish giants Real Madrid against the German machine known as Bayern Munich. Between them they have won 20 Champions League trophies and eight second places. There will be at least a ninth this season.

Then there’s the ‘underdog’ semi-final with one of the richest clubs in the world in PSG, who won another Ligue 1 title this week but are still chasing the dream of Champions League glory. They face Borussia Dortmund, a team that won the Champions League (1997) but currently sit fifth in the Bundesliga.

We are guaranteed a title match between an established Champions League power and a club looking to upset the apple cart.

Then there are the teams that aren’t there. Defending champions Manchester City will no longer have anything to defend as Real Madrid knocked them out in the quarter-finals. It was a common theme in the Premier League, which is without a team in the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since the 2019/20 Champions League, which was turned upside down by COVID.

Now let’s throw some darts at the wall and figure out how to bet these matches and make money for once.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid

Date: Tuesday April 30 | Time: 3:00 PM ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

I wonder if Bayern Munich finally being able to stop winning the Bundesliga is the best thing that could have happened to their Champions League hopes. For months everyone waited for Bayern to wake up and Bayer Leverkusen to crash, but that never happened. Now this team is playing much better without the pressure of winning a twelfth consecutive league title hanging around their necks. They have won four in a row since a 2-2 draw with Arsenal in the first leg of the quarter-finals, beating teams 10-2 in those wins. The defensive xG (expected goals) numbers were all solid too. It feels like Munich is peaking at the right time.

And they better be. Usually if you play anything but your best against Real Madrid in the Champions League, you will be rejected. But while Real Madrid remain the greatest Champions League club in history and have been dominant in Spain (Madrid has lost just two games in all competitions this season), they have been a bit leaky defensively of late. In three games against Manchester City and Barcelona, ​​they allowed six goals on 4.9 xG. Despite the results, Real have also been weaker defensively away from home all year. Two months ago I definitely wouldn’t have seen myself making this choice, but at the moment there is too much value available for Bayern. The Choice: Bayern Munich (+150)

Borussia Dortmund vs PSG

Date: Wednesday May 1 | Time: 3:00 PM ET | Watch: Biggest+

It might not be the headline match, but it could provide the most fireworks. Normally I don’t like taking the lead in the early stages because the road team can be a bit too conservative, but most of those teams don’t have Kylian Mbappe. PSG can park the bus if they wish and then send long balls to Mbappe, who no one can keep up with, and steal a goal or two. If you know Dortmund’s playing style, PSG will certainly get plenty of chances.

Conversely, PSG was not exactly a defensive defender. Barcelona put four past them in the quarter-finals and allowed eight goals in six group stage matches. Oh, and speaking of that group stage: Dortmund and PSG were in a group together. PSG won the first leg 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 in Dortmund. You’ll notice that none of these matches ended with more than two goals, but there was 7.3 xG among them. The opportunities were there. The question is: can they finish them this time? Despite these expectations, I am willing to believe that this is possible. The choice: more than 3.5 (+130)

Despair Parlay

I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Corner Picks are way behind in the Champions League this season and don’t have many games left to make up for that. It’s time to throw up some Hail Marys and hope someone on our side comes down with the ball. This parlay pays +1091.

• Harry Kane scores 2+ goals (+550)
• Kylian Mbappe scores (-120)