Corners, best football bets, predictions, odds: why Girona could upset Atletico Madrid

The Premier League and I have something in common: neither of us can do anything right in European competition at the moment. The Champion, Europa and Conference Leagues resumed this week and things didn’t go well for the best league in the world. Five Premier League teams played their first legs of a quarter-final, with only Aston Villa coming away with a win. Liverpool lost 3-0 at home to Atalanta and that was the most surprising result of all.

And then there was my performance in the Champions League. I can’t make a good choice to save my life in the Champions League this season, and no match could better serve as an example of my luck than Manchester City’s 3-3 draw against Real Madrid on Tuesday.

It was an incredible match full of tension and fantastic goals. The only problem is that I bet on Under 2.5, and the six goals scored came to a combined expected goals (xG) of 1.58.

In other words, I’m very happy to return to the league and the weekend, the area where Corner Picks can still make up some ground.

Atlético Madrid vs. Girona

Date: Saturday April 13 | Time: 8am ET | Watch: ESPN+

This isn’t a numbers game at all. We roll with our intuition and circumstances. The numbers would tell us not to bet against Atletico here, as they have been much stronger at home all season, while Girona have been ordinary on the road. In fact, Girona has lost four in a row and five of six on the road. There’s also the fact that Madrid are in a dogfight with Bilbao for fourth place and qualification for the Champions League in Spain, so get extra motivation.

But Atletico doesn’t have fresh legs. They beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 on Wednesday and now have a quick turnaround to face third-place La Liga side. Girona has not played since March 31. That’s almost two full weeks of rest and preparation time for Girona, while Atlético had to play in the Champions League. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it certainly makes me believe that Girona has a better chance of winning here than the line suggests. The Choice: Girona (+280)

Udinese vs Roma

Date: Sunday April 14 | Time: 12:00 PM ET | Watch: Biggest+

Roma hasn’t gotten enough respect from oddsmakers lately, but I’m not complaining because I’ve been able to take advantage of it. I hope to do that again. Roma recorded a surprise 1-0 win over AC Milan in the Europa League, but there’s a reason why it wasn’t a huge surprise. The win was Roma’s fourth consecutive clean sheet. No one has scored in this team since Brighton did a month ago. The results aren’t inconsistent either, as the xG figures suggest it’s deserved, and the overall defensive shape Roma have maintained in these games has been solid. Daniele De Rossi has moved from defensive midfielder to defensive manager, and the results have been spectacular for Roma.

That’s why I think Roma is a good choice this weekend, even on the road. It’s hard to lose when you don’t allow goals. Udinese are one of seven Serie A teams to drop out to avoid the last two relegation spots, so they have all the motivation in the world, but that motivation has been there for a while, and it hasn’t stopped them from making a mess defensively have been lately. . The Choice: Roma (+120)

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Date: Sunday April 14 | Time: 11:30 AM ET | Watch: USA

The irony of Aston Villa being the only Premier League team to win in Europe this week is that no one is making a louder case for the rest of the Premier League right now than Aston Villa and Tottenham. The Premier League is competing against Germany’s Bundesliga for a fifth spot in next year’s Champions League, with spots awarded based on how the leagues perform in European competitions. Villa have dropped to fifth in the Premier League, so they really want the Premier League to get that fifth spot.

However, Villa have dropped to fifth place as their defense has fallen off a cliff. Defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara tore his cruciate ligament on February 11 and Villa have since allowed seventeen goals in eight Premier League matches. They are a team hit hard by injuries among their defenders, and the injuries are finally catching up. That being said, it is also a team that can still score a lot of goals themselves. Arsenal will win this match far more often than they will lose, but there must be enough goals no matter what happens. The choice: more than 3.5 (+120)

Weekend Parlay

It’s an extremely tough parlay this week, but sometimes you just gotta see the ball go in, you know? It pays +107.

• Manchester City (-1000)
• Naples (-300)
• Liverpool (-475)
• Inter Milan (-600)