Crypto market will double in size to $5 trillion by 2024

The CEO of blockchain startup Ripple sees the combined market cap of the cryptocurrency market surpassing $5 trillion this year.

Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse told CNBC that he expects the entire value of the crypto market to double, citing macro factors including the arrival of the first US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, as well as the upcoming so-called bitcoin halving.

“I’ve been in this industry for a long time and have seen these trends come and go,” Garlinghouse told CNBC. “I’m very optimistic. I think the macro trends, the big things like the ETFs, are really driving institutional money for the first time.”

“You see this is driving demand, and at the same time demand is increasing and supply is decreasing,” Garlinghouse said. “It doesn’t take an economics student to tell you what happens when supply shrinks and demand increases.”

The first US spot bitcoin ETFs were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on January 10. They trade on US exchanges and allow institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without directly owning the underlying asset.

The Bitcoin halving is a technical event that occurs approximately every four years in Bitcoin’s history. It halves the total mining reward for bitcoin miners, who are volunteers on the bitcoin network who use powerful computers to verify transactions and create new tokens.

The last such event took place in 2020 and the next one is scheduled for later this month.

“It is easily predicted that the total market capitalization of the crypto industry will double by the end of this year… [as it’s] influenced by all these macro factors,” said Garlinghouse.

The total crypto market capitalization was approximately $2.6 trillion as of April 4. If the market were to double, that would imply a new total crypto market cap of $5.2 trillion.

Bitcoin is up more than 140% in the past 12 months.

According to CoinGecko data, the price hit an all-time high above $73,000 on March 13. However, it has since fallen well below the $70,000 level.

The world’s digital currency has been the main sign driving gains for the broader market.

Bitcoin accounts for approximately 49% of the entire crypto market, with a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion as of April 1.

One of the other factors Garlinghouse believes is driving the crypto market to new highs is the possibility of positive regulatory momentum in the United States.

Since this year is an election year, crypto hopefuls are optimistic that the next administration will be more aligned with the crypto industry with its policy focus.

The SEC under Chairman Gary Gensler has been aggressive in its enforcement against crypto companies, including Ripple itself.

The SEC targeted Ripple with a securities lawsuit alleging that it illegally sold XRP, a cryptocurrency with which Ripple is closely tied, in unregistered securities transactions. Ripple denies the claims and is fighting the lawsuit.

“One of the things I actually want to say about the macroeconomic tailwinds for the industry, I think we’re going to get more clarity in the United States,” Garlinghouse said.

“The US is still the largest economy in the world, and it has unfortunately been one of the most hostile crypto markets. And I think that will change too.”

Garlinghouse isn’t the only crypto bull predicting outsized gains for the crypto market this year.

Marshall Beard, chief operating officer of the American crypto exchange Gemini, recently told CNBC at a crypto conference in London that he expects the bitcoin price to rise to $150,000 later this year.

“Everything has already gone up so quickly this year, there’s just a lot of activity, a lot of adoption, new regulations, ETFs, the halving, miners having to get out,” Beard told CNBC.

“You’re going to see violent moves up and down to that new all-time high, which I think will be $150,000,” Beard added. “It’s probably going to happen this year. I think it’s happening so quickly… and I think the momentum, the supply shock, is going crazy fast.”

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