Ederson vs Stefan Ortega: A comparison of Manchester City’s goalkeepers as Ederson’s eyes return for the Champions League

Pep Guardiola may have rested some of his starting players this weekend ahead of Manchester City’s Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid, but while someone like Phil Foden could return to the line-up on Tuesday, the choice of City in front of the goal for the high-stakes match is less clear.

City were without Ederson for the better part of a month due to a muscle injury, but the shot-stopper was one of the substitutes in the team’s 4-2 win over Crystal Palace on Saturday. Ederson has traveled with the team to Madrid, but Guardiola admitted after the win over Palace that he has not made a decision between the Brazilian and his substitute Stefan Ortega.

“I have to think about it, because [Ederson] comes back from [being] injured,” Guardiola said, according to Manchester City’s website. “He’s feeling good, I think so. Now I have to decide if.” [he has] a lack of rhythm. I have to decide, but we are very happy with Stefan. He is an exceptional ‘keeper.

As Guardiola ponders which goalkeeper to choose ahead of the most anticipated Champions League quarter-final tie, here’s a look at Ortega’s performances during Ederson’s spell on the sidelines – and the qualities the Brazilian brings to the table when he is in goal.

Ortega’s varied schedule

Ortega has made 12 appearances in the league, Champions League and FA Cup this season, both on Ederson’s rest days and during his injury spell. It means the substitute was usually awarded some of the easier games on City’s schedule, such as a 3-2 win over Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League group stage or a 5-0 win over Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup.

It means that some of Ortega’s numbers are quite flattering: he is averaging 2.44 saves per game this season, more than Ederson’s 1.52, and has a 70% save record compared to Ederson’s 63.4%. Ortega also averages 6.44 shots against per game, slightly better than Ederson’s 6.77.

However, the German goalkeeper had to come on for Ederson in two of City’s biggest games of the season last month – their 1-1 draw with Liverpool, a 0-0 result against Arsenal and a 4-1 win over Aston. Villa. He made two saves against Arsenal and Villa and exceeded his average with four stops against Liverpool. He recorded a record of 100% saves against the Reds, as City conceded 1.35 expected goals – more than Ortega’s average of 0.91.

Ederson’s overall dominance

The fact that Ortega has faced a wide variety of opponents reflects the record of Ederson, who has been Guardiola’s choice almost regardless of the team at the other end of the pitch. The Brazilian got the lion’s share of matches against top-flight opponents and therefore he could be behind Ortega when it comes to number of saves per match and save percentage. However, Ederson’s body of work suggests that City are a stronger defensive unit with him in the line-up than without him.

Ederson scored an average of 0.86 goals against in his team, while that for Ortega is 0.96. The Brazilian records 0.79 expected goals conceded per match, a number that rises to 0.91 when Ortega is in goal. Ederson has also conceded 2.41 shots on target per 90 minutes, while Ortega has conceded 3.36 shots on target.

Guardiola’s main argument against Ederson for now appears to be a lack of match fitness, which could prove costly if City aim to successfully defend the title. A reintroduction on Saturday against relegation fighters Luton Town could be a safer approach, especially given the team’s relatively easy remaining league schedule. However, if Ederson looks ready, he could provide a boost to a City backline that is missing the likes of Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake, and will be up against a group of star-studded goalscorers like Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham.