England vs Spain line-up predictions, picks: how Euro 2024 final could be decided by substitutes and more

History beckons for England and Spain, a first Men’s European Championship for the Three Lions or a record-breaking fourth for La Furia Roja, by far the best performing team in the tournament so far. However, England perhaps had the most talent on paper and some of those qualities finally started to shine through in their victory over the Dutch in the semi-final. What could be the decisive trends in the game and what could a victory mean for both sides in the aftermath? Let’s see:

What changes will be made to the starting XI?

How did the impressive performances of those in the defensive battle against France influence Luis de la Fuente ahead of the biggest game of his managerial career? On the right back, you would assume the answer is not at all. Jesus Navas performed well despite the circumstances the 37-year-old found himself in – he was tasked early on with defending the most dangerous attacker in football – but he was helped no end by his opponent’s curious unwillingness to pass the ball to the other end to circulate. Kylian Mbappé on the left flank. Despite this, it is difficult to understand how Dani Carvajal, so reliable in the biggest matches, does not get in.

Aymeric Laporte’s partner may be a little more up for debate. Robin Le Normand had looked solid enough without ever really excelling before a yellow card ruled him out of the semi-final, one in which Nacho competed in impressive fashion. The former Real Madrid captain has seen it all when it comes to grand finals – and done it when called upon to do so on occasion – and such big-game experience cannot be discounted.

England, meanwhile, are likely to roll out at least 10 of the players Southgate has entrusted to take them to another final. There are questions about the availability of Kieran Trippier, who was substituted at half-time as a precaution in the semi-final win over the Netherlands. It would hardly be the end of the world for the Three Lions, who spent much of the tournament without a functioning left side, if Luke Shaw were to join the fray.

For all the question marks surrounding Southgate’s tactical acumen, it is worth noting that despite fielding a rarely changing starting line-up – Declan Rice’s midfield partner the only uncertain player this tournament – he has been able to give his England side a different look. . Against Switzerland came the much-vaunted pivot to a 3-4-2-1, with Bukayo Saka acting as a true right-sided forward in possession, while Trippier’s role was more hybrid.

However, in the first half against the Netherlands, England were even more in the foreground. You could be forgiven for confusing the passing map above with something from a progressive, ball-dominant club side. It’s not a million miles away from the kind of 2-3-5 in possession that Arsenal and Manchester City operate, perhaps more 2-4-4, Walker and Trippier less inverting and more looking for the width of the pitch with overlaps. runs.

Will England feel they can get away with such aggressive possession from their wing-backs (especially the one who should be a hybrid full-back) if Dani Olmo and Rodri wait to let Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal get behind them? Perhaps not entirely, although moving Trippier and Walker so high up the pitch tested the Dutch ability to play through the press and would do the same to a Spanish backline that, apart from Laporte, might struggle.

Predicted lineups

Spain XI: Unai Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Olmo; Yamal, Morata, Williams

England XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Shaw; Mainoo, rice; Saka, Foden, Bellingham, Kane

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• Date: Sunday July 14 | Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Place: Olympiastadion-Berlin
• TV: Fox | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
• Chances: Spain +150; Sign +188; England +240

Will Southgate time his changes well?

If these two-way tournaments are anything to go by so far, expect a quick start to proceedings. Spain have scored four, shot 36, and conceded three in the opening half-hour of their Euro 2024 matches so far. England have three goals to their name at the same stage, conceding two. They hit the front hard, but that often brought tired legs. De La Fuente was almost knocked out in the quarter-final win over Germany as he tried to maintain the fitness of both Williams and Yamal – more on that later – while Southgate’s key lieutenants looked dead in the second half against the Dutch.

No wonder. With Rice unable to even reach the onrushing Dutch midfielders to foul them, you could see the sheer weight of all the 4,274 minutes of club football he played leading up to the European Championship, where he hasn’t missed a minute . It’s no wonder Kane arrived late in the box as he ended another tough season with a back problem. Jude Bellingham’s late-season fitness woes don’t appear to have abated either.

England needed to make a change and to Southgate’s credit. Neither Ollie Watkins nor Cole Palmer were particularly active before the substitutes combined to score the winner less than 10 minutes after their introduction for Kane and Phil Foden. Vindication for the manager, cried the English nation. As if that were necessary. For all the questions about Southgate’s tactical attributes, there are plenty of examples where his use of a high-quality bench has swung a game in England’s direction.

They range from the obvious – Ivan Toney’s assist for Kane to beat Slovakia – to the more obtuse. Did space open up for Saka to cut onto his left foot and drive home, as the presence of Eberechi Eze and Luke Shaw had given England an effective left flank with which to attack Switzerland?

Dig further back into previous knockout rounds and there are plenty of other changes that Southgate has implemented well. Mason Mount almost turned the 2022 World Cup quarter-final back in England’s direction. At Euro 2020, Jack Grealish established himself as something of an elite closer, assisting one and pre-assisting the other against Germany and playing an extremely effective role against Denmark. Even in a final that saw Southgate drift, Saka had his moments as the first man off the bench. These may not be Pep Guardiola-esque tricks, ripping up the game plan to immediately find something more effective, but that’s a high bar for any coach. There is nothing wrong with bringing players into the same system if their individual qualities suit the game better.

The curious but much-discussed aspect of Southgate’s substitutions is what time he left them. Apart from the forced substitution of Trippier for Shaw on Wednesday, England have only changed their XI once before the hour mark of a knockout match under current management, the 57th minute of their Euro 2020 quarter-final against Ukraine. Jordan Henderson replaced Declan Rice as England led 3-0. Perhaps Southgate sees that as rest. The following year it was the same score when Saka and Foden withdrew in the 65th minute of a win over Senegal in the round of 16.

Cut to Trippier’s problem in the semi-final and Southgate’s first substitution in knockout matches coming in the 65th minute. In four of the eleven games he has done nothing until after the 78th minute. That may seem bafflingly late to his many opponents. Perhaps it appeals to a coach who clearly has his eye on matches with extra time and beyond the two hours. Six of those eleven matches went into the 120th minute, three of which went to penalties. England have even won two.

If this final goes all the way, you would have to fear for England. Spain has half an hour less football in their legs and their passage to the quarter-finals was so serene that there is no trace of tired legs for De La Fuente, who has Carvajal and Le Normand back after nine days’ rest. If those 58 years of pain are to end, perhaps it would be best if Southgate took the words of King Charles III to heart and won the match inside 90 minutes.

Is this Rodri’s Ballon d’Or moment?

As unfortunate as it seems that one of the biggest prizes in team sports is ultimately viewed through the lens of individual accolades, there comes a time and a place where it is necessary to stoke the coals of the hype train. He may not have Rio Ferdinand shouting the Ballon d’Or every second he has the ball, but perhaps that’s because Rodri is convincing enough to win the award anyway. Manchester United’s 74-game unbeaten streak may have ended, but one defeat in 80 games is nothing to sneeze at, right?

The best player in the Premier League last season was also the best at the European Championship, even if his midfield partner Fabian Ruiz puts up an excellent fight. In almost every way a midfielder can influence a match, Rodri excels.

He passes the ball regularly and accurately, getting the ball into the attacking third and keeping it for Spain when necessary. If the ball comes loose, he is a monster in the duels. He wins almost 60 percent of the 49 matches he has been involved in and regains possession more often than anyone except Fabian Ruiz. That clutch scoring trait he developed at Manchester City was on full display then La Roja faltered against Georgia. Rodri may need to employ one or more of these traits at some point in the final. He has proven time and time again that he reads the moment better than anyone.

“I try to give movement to the piece, a dynamic, a rhythm,” he told The Guardian earlier in the tournament. “To connect with the players in front of you as quickly as possible, to mature the game, to interpret it, to get it where you want it to be. That’s what most defines the role of the pivot: when to accelerate, when to brake, when to press higher, when to go deeper. Those thoughts always go through your head. If the ball comes to me and we have to take a break, I’m not going to speed up the game.’

For all Kobbie Mainoo’s burgeoning talents and Rice’s excellence off the ball (which is rarely seen as he is tired from the knockout stages), England don’t have a midfielder who can command the game like Rodri. He will no doubt have studied how Jorginho, Luka Modric and Frenkie de Jong got the Three Lions on their passing carousel and made them dizzy on their way to defeat in previous tournaments. Repeat that trick on Sunday and he might end up with the individual prizes he’s not interested in at all.

Prediction: Once against England they fall short at the last hurdle, Spain 2, England 1