High death rates in the West for three years since the start of the pandemic, despite containment and vaccines

Excessive death rates have remained high in the West for three years in a row since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a data analysis of 47 countries published in BMJ Public Health.

This is despite the implementation of several containment measures and the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, raising “serious concerns”, say the researchers, calling on governments and policymakers to thoroughly investigate the root causes.

The researchers wanted to measure the effectiveness of the response to the health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as reflected in the high number of deaths.

These refer to the number of people who died between January 2020 and December 2022 from any cause beyond what would normally be expected for a given week/month in 47 countries in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand.

The researchers applied a statistical method, the Karlinsky and Kobak estimation model. This uses historical mortality data in a given country from 2015 to 2019 and takes into account seasonal variations and annual trends in deaths due to changes in population structure.

The total number of excess deaths in the countries included in the analysis was 3,098,456. Excess deaths were reported by 41 countries (87%) in 2020, by 42 (89%) in 2021 and by 43 (91%) in 2022.

In 2020, the year when the COVID-19 pandemic began and containment measures – such as lockdowns, social distancing, school closures and quarantines – were implemented, 1,033,122 additional deaths were recorded (11.5% more than expected).

In 2021, the year in which both COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to combat the spread and infection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a total of 1,256,942 additional deaths were reported ( just under 14% more than expected).

And in 2022, the year in which most containment measures were lifted but COVID-19 vaccines continued, preliminary data indicates that 808,392 additional deaths were recorded.

Greenland was the only country out of 47 that reported no additional deaths between 2020 and 2022. Among other countries, the percentage difference between reported and expected deaths was highest in 13 countries (28%) in 2020, in 21 (46%) in 2021, and in 12 (26%) in 2022.

The percentage difference between the documented and expected number of deaths was highest in 28% of countries in 2020, 46% in 2021 and 26% in 2022.

It is not clear how many of these excess deaths reflect the impact of COVID-19 infection, or the indirect effects of containment measures and vaccination programs, the researchers say.

While it is likely that the indirect effects of the containment measures have changed the extent and nature of diseases for numerous causes of death after the pandemic, the consequences caused by limited healthcare use and socio-economic unrest are difficult to prove, they add to it.

The researchers acknowledge several limitations to their findings, including the incompleteness of some data – especially for 2022 – because it can take months or even years for a death to be recorded in certain countries, they explain.

And the way this data is collected varies from country to country, the researchers point out, who also point out that the data they used did not provide detailed stratification of key characteristics such as age or gender.

Nevertheless, they conclude: “Excess mortality has remained high in the Western world for three years in a row, despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns.

“Government leaders and policymakers must thoroughly examine the root causes of persistent excess mortality and evaluate their policies on health crises.”