Ukraine has largely remained silent on the offensive. (File)
Ukrainian ground troops and mechanized forces crossed the international border and advanced more than 20 miles into Russian territory, one of the most significant developments in the ongoing war between the two countries. Ukrainian troops, estimated to number more than 1,000, have moved from the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine and taken over Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine’s invasion caught Russia by surprise, which is now rallying troops to stop the advance. Kiev carried out intense artillery and drone strikes, along with the movement of mechanized forces into enemy territory.
The Institute for Study of War (ISW), a non-profit organization, has geolocated the positions of Ukrainian troops through open source videos and photos of the operation and marked the areas that witnessed the Ukrainian advance. The blue area indicates the areas where Ukrainians have entered.
Russia has rallied its troops to stop further incursion by Ukrainians. The purpose of the Ukrainian operation is unclear, but since the start of the war in February 2022, the Kiev operation appears to be the biggest challenge Putin’s Russia has faced.
Ukraine has largely remained silent on the offensive. Meanwhile, Russia has declared a “federal emergency” and mobilized troops to defend the area.
Geolocalization of Ukrainian advance
ISW said the advance of Ukrainian mechanized forces, consisting of tanks, infantry and armored vehicles, almost 35 km into Russia was “fast”, but ISW said it does not appear that the Ukrainians certainly “do not control that area”.
Russian conscripts, FSB border guards and elements of Chechen ‘Akhmat’ units, a motorized unit operating in the Chechen Republic and fighting for Russia, operate in the Kursk region and have built field fortifications along the border. They were broken through by Ukrainian troops. Based on the information accessed by ISW, Ukrainian forces have been in Sverdlikovo, Sudhza, Malaya and Lyubimovka since August 8.
Vladimir Putin has called the raid a “large-scale provocation” by Kiev, and Russia’s top general has vowed to crush it. Meanwhile, an official of the Chechen Akhmat unit said: “The situation is not irreversible. Nothing supernatural happened, yes, our people died, that’s a fact. The enemy has invaded several settlements,” said General Apti Alaudinov, a close ally of the Chechen dictator Ramzan. Kadyrov and commander of Akhmat’s special forces.
Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces are advancing in small units from Russia’s rear, bypassing their fortifications before attacking Russian forces and then withdrawing from the fighting without attempting to consolidate control over their furthest advances.
The new frontline in Russia is far removed from other areas where heavy fighting has taken place since the start of the war. Significant fighting took place in eastern Ukraine, much of which is said to be under Russian control. In the east, Donetsk, Luhansk and Horlivka were under Russian control before the start of the war two years ago. Russian troops have moved further west from these regions and control a frontline running from northeast to south of Ukraine.
According to the ISW map, the red line indicates Russian advances in Ukraine and the black dotted lines indicate Russian control over Ukrainian territory before the start of the war.
Ukrainian drones targeted residential buildings in the border areas of Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod. Fighters from Ukraine have made several short incursions into Russia since the conflict began in February 2022.
Russia calls in troops
Russian military experts have condemned officials for failing to notice the raids in the first place. The Ukrainian offensive has entered its third day. Russia initially gathered air and artillery units to repel the attacks, but failed to stop the advance.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it has sent columns of military equipment, including rocket launchers, artillery, tanks and heavy trucks, to strengthen defenses in the area.
Russia carried out artillery attacks on a supermarket in Kostjantynivka, eastern Ukraine. The attack is Russia’s response to the Ukrainian advance. Ten people were killed and 35 were injured in the shelling. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed revenge for the attack.
“Russia will be held responsible for this terror, and we will do our best to ensure that the world continues to support Ukraine in supporting our defense and saving the lives of our people,” Zelensky said on X.
Kostjantynivka, Donetsk region. Russian terrorists have attacked a regular supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble. A rescue operation is underway and everything will be done to save them.
It is currently known that four people have died. Mine… pic.twitter.com/Sd9vrGTHTc
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024
Kostyantynivka has witnessed attacks in the past and Russian shelling is a common occurrence.
Raid to exert influence?
Kharkiv in Ukraine has been a major flashpoint between the forces and has witnessed intense fighting in the past. In May, Russia launched a new offensive in the region and captured significant territory in Kharkov. In the attacks, Russia dropped 1,000 kg of guided bombs on a hardware store, killing 16.
Last year, Ukrainian forces launched a major counter-offensive to reclaim Kharkov, which almost reached Russia’s border. Kharkiv has had a side occupied by Russia since the start of the war on February 24, 2022.
The Russian-controlled area is very close to the international border and is located several kilometers north of the city of Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city. Ukraine’s continued incursion into Kursk could be a way to gain leverage at the negotiating table for a ceasefire in certain areas, forcing the enemy to withdraw troops from other areas to strengthen the front line. The Ukrainian goal remains unclear.
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington was “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding.” He added: “Nothing has changed in our policy” and Ukraine can only use US-supplied weapons “to address looming threats just across the border.”
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the Kremlin: “It’s a bit rich, they call it a provocation, as Russia has violated the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.”
