Mexico eliminated from Copa America: how El Tri managed to dampen already low expectations in dismal display

Mexico did not go to the Copa America with high expectations. A year and a half after exiting the group stage at the 2022 World Cup, two unspectacular games in the Concacaf Nations League and two coaching changes later, many realized this was not the El Tri team that was once North America’s gold standard. But as they exited the Copa America group stage on Sunday after a 0-0 draw against Ecuador, the national team managed to surprise by how low they have actually fallen.

Jaime Lozano’s side needed a win against Ecuador to rise from third to second place and secure a place in the weekend’s quarter-finals. The team seemed to understand the task from the kick-off at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, having almost 60% of the ball and outscoring the opponent 19-9. There was just one problem: they never really had the quality to get them across the finish line.

Look no further than their attacking efforts on Sunday. Mexico had 13 shots on target before finally landing its first shot on target in the 65th minute. The shot quality improved from then on, but they only scored 0.86 expected goals, sending some of their best shots off target. The belief that Mexico would actually score with one of their many chances – if there was any pre-match – slowly seeped out of the match every time they failed to convert a shot. As a result, the intensity that a high shot count usually brings was offset by an inefficiency that lingered throughout their performance, creating a sense of stupidity that is slowly becoming Mexico’s trademark.

Their attacking effort was perhaps Mexico’s biggest shortcoming during the Copa America, where they scored just one goal in three matches, far short of the 4.71 expected goals average they generated during the competition. Their inability to score made their defensive stability – they conceded just once during the group stage – questionable, but perhaps not much of a surprise given the attackers they came into the tournament with. No player in this young El Tri team has scored more than thirteen international goals, an indication that a team trying to start over has still not brought the innovation they were hoping for.

Mexico’s problems at the top are also reflected in the fanbase’s new choice to be the face of the team, Santiago Gimenez. The 23-year-old has made waves in Europe following a 26-goal, eight-assist season for Feyenoord, positioning himself as a young player that many will hope will prosper in the near future. However, his potential has not yet fully translated to the national team: he has scored just four goals in 30 games, none of which came in the Copa America. His breakthrough moment for El Tri is yet to come and the pressure for that will not let up. It is rare for the weight of expectations to diminish for Mexico, and there is no reason to expect the home crowd to take it easy on the The national team’s decline is clearly on the decline here, just two years before the home World Cup.

With the downward trend going on for years, it seems pretty easy to predict where Mexico could go from here. A trigger-happy federation could easily fire the head coach again as they feel no particular attachment to Lozano as he was an interim member who got the full-time gig because he won the Concacaf Gold Cup, which was contested by the B and C teams from the region. The team has made no progress in the past year since he took over and it seems unlikely that many will miss him.

However, Lozano isn’t really the problem here. The hiring and firing wave in Mexico only creates a cycle of uncertainty that could hinder the program’s progress as the solution is believed to be just one coach away. It would be unwise to suggest that any talented coach could get the best out of this group, but the question facing Mexico over the next two years is this: how much higher is their ceiling? There’s no doubt that El Tri has underperformed, but dreams of a deep run in 2026 – and for the foreseeable future – could be more ambitious than they ever were.

There is still time to reverse course and actually get started once the World Cup starts. However, exiting the Copa America group stage indicates that there is still a lot of work to be done, and a two-year timeline may not be enough to accomplish those tasks.