Sports

NBA Pre-Postseason Player Levels 1 and 2: Wembanyama Rising Fast; Giannis, Jokić steady at the top

Published

3 months ago

April 13, 2024

Yesterday I focused largely on covering the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason Player Tiers before unveiling Tier 3 (players between 24th and 42nd) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43-80).

Today I’ll take a closer look at some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, and also note some general trends.

For starters, one consistent piece of feedback – and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 – is the always difficult evaluation of which player is more valuable between an elite role player and a good-but-not-great primary or secondary maker. One senior analytics staffer within the league went so far as to claim that they would essentially prefer the entirety of Tier 4A, largely consisting of elite role players or connectors, over Tier 3B, which consists of the All-Star -border primaries.

I don’t think there is a reliable way to resolve this debate and at some level the decision between, say, Mikal Bridges on one side and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the respective rosters than of the individual players. . In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better if the two were swapped!

NBA Player Levels: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4

In some ways, this is actually an extension of the long-simmering question of how to judge the sub-elite, but still very good level of on-ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more valuable in the league than making elite shots and nothing more overrated than making mediocre shots, but finding the importance and desirability of players in between is just hard.

It is also, in some form or another, the reason to do this exercise at all, because establishing that there is a fairly large gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is substantial, an essential part is of the selection. Evaluation. In other words: avoid cheapening the term ‘franchise player’.

Another group of teammates that illustrate this division are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was a particularly worthy All-Star this year. Through the April 10 games, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have had a comparable number of scoring attempts with league-average efficiency, according to Basketball Reference, with Banchero ranking seventh on that list. On some level, however, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. On my Simple Shot Quality model, his expected eFG% of 50.2 percent is the 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 shots tracked this season.

But to back up a bit, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd most difficult diets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, all of whom significantly outperformed their shot expectations with 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 ( Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points, while Banchero has shot mainly on the level of his shot quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for keeping Orlando’s offense afloat in the first place by at least soaking up possessions? How would he perform if there were more creative guards playing around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why Banchero is a difficult player to judge.

Meanwhile, Wagner doesn’t have the same self-creation ability as Banchero, but he is superior in most other areas – more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defense, playing off the ball – in a way that would make him a very plug-and-play player. -play an addition to any team whose primary creative roles have already been filled.

Moving on, there are a few notable players who could have been ranked much higher if I had done a mid-season level update. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He was great this year, a worthy All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s high-powered offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t measured up to the first, whether that’s the result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out, or most likely a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty about how well his style will translate to the playoffs, leaves him in Tier 3, when I had him in the bottom of Tier 2 for much of the season.

Damian Lillard is another player who has moved down a level over the course of the season. It was easy to give a bit of a pass early in the year, both due to adjusting to a new team and role and the coaching turmoil that the Bucks faced in the early stages of the season . But even if he has shown some of his old dominance in fits and starts, like the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he had on Wednesday to propel the Bucks past the Magic despite Giannis’ absence Antetokounmpo, those performances are the exception rather than the rule. Over his last four seasons in Portland, Lillard posted a combined 62.1 True Shooting on 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has dropped to 59.3 TS on 28.4 usages, his least efficient full season compared to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a big question mark defensively, it is a worrying decline at the age of 33.

Of course, he could come out swinging in the playoffs and help carry the Bucks to the Eastern Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 discussion.

Speaking of playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were a few players who couldn’t easily improve their rankings until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid being the main examples. All three have great chances to make the postseason this year, with Dončić in particular looking well poised to make a run; the midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ newfound ability to always match Dončić’s creative mastery with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded by shooting seems to have unlocked something special.

Meanwhile, there are a few players who I’ve already more or less assumed will be great in the playoffs based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray haven’t exactly had regular seasons, but both have a track record of playoff dominance.

I’m bouncing around a bit, I’m not sure what to do with Ja Morant and so I’m essentially treating this as a gap year while recognizing that he’s put himself under extra scrutiny next year.

Finally, let’s talk about the big Frenchman in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, one of the top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he’s been at an All-NBA level all season, but he’s been good enough as a rookie and has developed over the year that makes me think he’ll get off to a strong start next season . chance of honor in all competitions.

This growth is especially evident when comparing before and after his move to center instead of power forward in early December, or the use of Tre Jones as starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a competent point guard.

Regarding the former, he has since been a top five rim protector in the league, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez during that period. Meanwhile, before Jones joined the starters, Wembanyama only managed a 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 uses), but since then that figure has risen to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 uses, while increasing his assist percentage with has increased almost 50 percent. And all this while his 3-point shooting is still a work in progress.

Of course, the numbers don’t even tell the full Wemby story, as evidenced by the almost nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?!” highlights. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in the playoffs this year, it seems almost inevitable that if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on the door of Tier 1 once he delivers on everything he was so excited about . are, and more.

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