NFL Sophomore Breakout Candidates: Will Levis and other 2023 draft picks ready to make an impact

The number of rookies who can’t be bothered to wait for their real breakout season seems to be increasing every year. The latest example may be Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud. Or maybe the Texans are Will Anderson Jr. or Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Maybe Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Oh, and probably Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua.

You get the point.

The 2023 rookie class has certainly made its mark – and we have yet to hear all about the entire group. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few second-year players who could have breakout seasons in 2024 (health permitting).

Quarterback

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (Round 2, No. 33)

To be honest, a few guys are arguing here. Aidan O’Connell is battling Gardner Minshew II for the Las Vegas job. If he wins that, don’t be surprised if he exceeds expectations (again) – O’Connell was one of the most underrated prospects in the class of 2023. I’m not ready to give up on Bryce Young either, and I glad to see Anthony Richardson for more than a month.

The breakout choice, however, is Levis. He was a very difficult evaluation coming out of Kentucky due to a toe injury he suffered in 2022, but his accuracy (and confidence) in the field was much better in 2021. That’s what we saw last season at Tennessee.

During Levis’ nine games as a starter, 21.5 percent of his completions went over 20 yards – a tick better than Stroud’s number (20.5 on the season). Being consistently accurate at every level of the court is the next step for Levis, and this is achievable with more healthy reps.

Run back

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (Round 3, No. 81)

Gibbs, Robinson and De’Von Achane all enjoyed big rookie seasons. If not for a major ACL injury, Baltimore’s Keaton Mitchell (currently on the PUP list) would have joined them.

Spears was also on the perimeter, rushing for 453 yards on 100 attempts. He tied Gibbs for second among rookies (behind Robinson) with 52 catches for 385 yards and another score. Replacing Derrick Henry with one person isn’t happening. But even if Spears gets help from Tony Pollard, don’t be surprised if he’s the new star in Nashville by the end of the season.

Also keep an eye on Chicago’s Roschon Johnson and Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet.

Wide receiver

Tank Dell, Houston Texans (Round 3, No. 69)

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 50)

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (Round 3, No. 79)

A broken fibula limited Dell to 11 games last season – and yet it could still be cheating to include him here. The former Houston Cougars dynamo averaged 2.22 yards per route last season, third among rookies behind only Nacua and Rashee Rice. Despite his small stature (6-foot-1, 165 pounds), Dell is a force underneath and better in the air than people think (six contested catches last year).

Reed (64 catches, 793 yards, eight touchdowns) was one of the most unsung contributors to Jordan Love’s breakout season, and Downs, another undersized speedster, was perhaps Richardson’s favorite target in Indianapolis prior to the QB’s injury. (Downs could miss the start of the regular season due to a high ankle sprain.) Also, don’t be shocked if Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who missed a lot of time in college) steps up and reminds people who he is out west this season.

Those players, Nacua, Rice, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison, make for an excellent WR class in their own right.

Tight end

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 42)

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (Round 3, No. 78)

The 2023 tight end class was hailed as potentially historic, and it’s hard to dislike the production. LaPorta set a rookie TE reception record, and Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid would have been the first-year runaway top in any other season but 2023.

Oddly enough, though, the top two breakout prospects for 2024 play for the same team.

Musgrave is the favorite after having 34 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown in an injury-shortened 11-game season. Kraft, his classmate and teammate, is not far behind. He played the full season and finished with three fewer catches, three more yards and one more touchdown than Musgrave.

Both are great athletes – especially Musgrave, who flirted with 4.4 speed at 6-6, 250 in college.

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Offensive line

Sidy Sow, New England Patriots (Round 4, No. 117)

Darnell Wright, Chicago Bears (Round 1, No. 10)

Joe Tippmann, New York Jets (Round 2, No. 43)

Matthew Bergeron, Atlanta Falcons (Round 2, No. 38)

Peter Skoronski, Tennessee Titans (Round 1, No. 11)

A hyper-versatile and athletic big man, Sow was one of my favorite Day 3 picks of the 2023 draft. The 6-4, 325-pounder was a left guard/tackle at Eastern Michigan before switching to right guard as a rookie. It wasn’t always pretty, but Sow had some big flashes in 13 starts.

Tippmann (who had some issues early in camp) and Wright both showed potential in the run game last season and should continue to improve, while Bergeron got a full year of starts at right guard for the first time in his life . One of the most athletic linemen in the class of 2023, Bergeron was only a right-left tackle in college and could make a big splash as part of a very solid front in Atlanta.

Skoronski, a standout tackle in college, was limited from moving inside due to an injury early in the season. If he can stay healthy, the Titans’ offensive line — which also added Alabama OT JC Latham in this year’s draft — could surprise people.

Defensive line

Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers (Round 2, No. 54)

Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, No. 49)

Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 1, No. 19)

Karl Brooks, Green Bay Packers (Round 6, No. 179)

As with Dell, it’s probably a bit unfair to include Tuipulotu here; he had a very good rookie season (as did several rookie linemen, including Anderson, Jalen Carter, Byron Young and Kobie Turner). However, the quick and smart 6-3, 260-pounder will now work with Jesse Minter in an offshoot of the Ravens system. Look for the Chargers to put more on his plate and unlock more than we’ve seen. He could be a star on that defense.

Benton has lost weight and appears to be in line for more work after a very efficient rookie year. His combination of punch and foot speed could provide a serious, versatile upgrade for the Steelers.

If Kancey can stay healthy for a full season and solidify his running discipline alongside Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s interior could be the best in the NFL.

Brooks, another 2023 Day 3 favorite, made the most of a multi-spot rotation role for Green Bay (four sacks, 25 pressures in just 256 reps – don’t forget Lukas Van Ness) and, like Benton, the athletic versatility to be a terror to slower linemen. Arizona prospect BJ Ojulari was also on this list before suffering a knee injury early in training camp, a tough blow for a promising youngster.

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Linebacker

Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (Round 1, No. 18)

SirVocea Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 5, No. 153)

Otis Reese IV, Tennessee Titans (UDFA)

Campbell’s rookie season became complicated when Detroit asked him to step away from the stack for a short period and move into an edge role. However, his play in the second half and in the play-offs was very good. It wouldn’t be a shock if he got the green spot as a defensive player, even with veteran LB Alex Anzalone on the roster.

Dennis didn’t play much last season, but the 2023 fifth-rounder is poised to do more work with Devin White now in Philadelphia. Dennis was a long, explosive overall inside nuisance at Pitt (12 TFL, seven sacks as a senior) and has the kind of effort/instinct combo that Todd Bowles craves.

The top rookie linebacker in 2023 was Vikings undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr. But another UDFA, Reese, showed real promise and serious play speed over a handful of games late last season. He could be an inside solution for the Titans this season.

Defensive back

Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (Round 1, No. 17)

Brian Branch, Detroit Lions (Round 2, No. 45)

Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals (Round 3, No. 95)

Tyrique Stevenson, Chicago Bears (Round 2, No. 56)

Gonzalez had a great first month last season before his year ended due to a shoulder injury. Gonzalez, the top corner player in the ’23 class (4.38 seconds, 40 yard dash, 41 inches vertical, 32 inches arms), could be an early bright spot for Jerod Mayo.

Branch is another player who may have performed better than this list, but he did lose several games last season due to injury. More importantly, Detroit plans to further expand his role in 2024 – the Lions believe he is a future Pro Bowler. Cincinnati could say the same about Battle, another ex-Alabama safety who looks like a potential multi-year stud.

Other candidates include Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Izien. However, Stevenson had some excellent performances in Chicago last year and should only improve against Jaylon Johnson.

(Top photos of Will Levis, left, and Keeanu Benton: Matthew Maxey, Mark Alberti / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)