Premier League title, relegation scenarios: what Manchester City and Arsenal need as the race heads to the final day

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The final week of play in the Premier League has been packed with high-stakes action, including Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday, which reaffirmed their claim as favorites to win the title.

City now go into the final day with a two-point lead over Arsenal, but both teams will need results in their respective matches against West Ham and Everton to take top spot at the final whistle. It won’t be the only race played on Sunday, with places in the UEFA Europa League and Conference League at stake, as well as a final death knell in the relegation race to be sounded.

Here’s a look at the scenarios playing out in the Premier League on Championship Sunday.

Sunday’s program

All matches start at 11am ET

Manchester City vs West Ham
Arsenal vs Everton
Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sheffield United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Luton Town vs Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Manchester United
Brentford vs Newcastle United
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
Chelsea vs Bournemouth

The race for the title

1. Manchester City	37	27	7	3	93	33	+60	88
2. Arsenal	37	27	5	5	89	26	+61	86

City and Arsenal remain in the title race on Sunday, but the reigning champions go into the season finale with an 83.9% chance of lifting the trophy for the fourth season in a row. per Opta. Here’s a look at the scenarios each team needs to finish top of the table on the final day of the season.

Manchester city

A win against West Ham
A draw or loss against West Ham plus a draw or loss for Arsenal against Everton

Arsenal

A win against Everton plus a draw against Manchester City or a loss against West Ham

Qualification for Europe

5.Tottenham Hotspur	37	19	6	12	71	61	+10	63
6.Chelsea	37	17	9	11	75	62	+13	60
7. Newcastle United	37	17	6	14	81	60	+21	57
8.Manchester United	37	17	6	14	55	58	-3	57

Tottenham Hotspur are officially out of the running for the UEFA Champions League, but they are the favorites for a place in next season’s UEFA Europa League with a 90.6% chance of finishing fifth. The only team that can overtake them at the moment is Chelsea, but that would require a somewhat dramatic series of events. Manchester United can still technically qualify, but only through the FA Cup. Here’s a look at what each team needs in the battle for a spot in the Europa League.

Tottenham Hotspur

A win or draw against Sheffield United
A loss to Sheffield United plus a draw at Chelsea or loss to Bournemouth

Chelsea

A win against Bournemouth plus a Tottenham loss against Sheffield

Manchester United

Win the FA Cup against Manchester City on May 25

This group of teams also has a chance to qualify for the UEFA Europa Conference League, with Chelsea the favorites to end their first season under Mauricio Pochettino in a respectable sixth place. The Blues’ chances stand at 82.8%, while Newcastle’s shot drops to 7.8% and United’s shot is almost 0%. Here’s a look at the Conference League qualifying scenarios.

Tottenham Hotspur

A loss against Sheffield United plus a Chelsea win over Bournemouth

Chelsea

A win over Bournemouth plus a Tottenham win or draw over Sheffield United
A draw or loss against Bournemouth plus a draw or loss for Brentford at Newcastle

Newcastle United

A win over Brentford plus a Chelsea loss to Bournemouth

Manchester United

A win over Brighton and a superior goal difference over Chelsea and Newcastle plus a Chelsea loss to Bournemouth

Avoiding the fall

17. Nottingham Forest	37	8	9	20	47	66	-19	29
18. Luton Town	37	6	8	23	50	81	-31	26

Although it seems like it, the relegation battle is not technically over yet. While Sheffield United and Burnley are already on their way back to the Championship, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest are battling relegation. The scenario favors the latter thanks to their goal difference. Here’s a look at the relegation scenarios.

Nottingham forest