Study examines suicide contagion after celebrity deaths and opens up avenues for prevention

New research models the rapid and widespread spread of suicidal behavior following the suicides of Robin Williams in 2014, and of Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain, which occurred three days apart in 2018.

Researchers at Columbia University developed a computer model to investigate the dynamics underlying suicide contagion. They found that both the 2014 and 2018 events led to large increases in suicidal thoughts and behavior. The findingsthat appear in the news Scientific progressprovide a framework for quantifying suicidal contagions to better understand, prevent, and contain their spread.

“The model we developed shows how suicide contagion, including both suicidal thoughts and deaths, spreads rapidly following the suicide deaths of celebrities whose lives and work are well known and likely meaningful to large segments of the population,” said Jeffrey Shaman, Ph. D. , co-author of the study, interim dean of the Columbia Climate School and professor of environmental health sciences at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health.

Shaman is known for developing models for influenza and SARS-CoV-2. The Columbia researchers’ model for suicide contagion has a structure similar to models depicting other infectious systems, including the number of individuals who can transmit the contagion and the number of individuals susceptible to “infection.”

There is no single factor that causes suicide or suicidal thoughts. However, some suicidal ideation has long been attributed to social or contagious processes. Proximity to or familiarity with individuals who have had, attempted, or died from suicidal thoughts may trigger suicidal thoughts or attempts in susceptible individuals.

According to the CDCSuicide rates increased by 37% between 2000 and 2018 and fell by 5% between 2018 and 2020, before peaking again in 2021.

Columbia’s suicide contagion model uses two data sources. First, the total number of weekly calls to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, currently known as the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline (988 Lifeline), was used as an estimate of the rate of suicidal ideation (988 Lifeline is a network of more than 200 24-hour crisis calls). centers providing confidential mental health crisis and counseling services across the country).

The second source is derived from mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System, administered by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The model estimates that after the 2014 suicide event, there was a marked increase in suicide infections, including a thousand-fold increase in the likelihood that someone would start thinking about suicide after news of Williams’ death by suicide.

The result was a marked increase in suicidal ideation, reflected in a spike in call volume to 988 Lifeline. The 2018 case is similar, although the magnitude of the changes in suicide rates after news of Spade and Bourdain’s suicides was about half.

Among the two celebrity suicide events, the number of excess suicide deaths was approximately double after the 2014 Williams event, possibly reflecting differences in communication and media coverage after each event and the degree to which the population is connected to the deceased . In both the 2014 and 2018 simulations, the increased infection rates lasted about two weeks before returning to baseline levels.

Ultimately, with further research, researchers say the model could provide real-time estimates of infection and suicide risk. Such estimates would require that the call volume of 988 Lifeline calls and the number of NVSS suicides be available in real time; currently they are not. In addition, further research is needed to develop alternative models, including models that simulate responses among specific communities and models that take into account media and public health efforts.

“Ultimately, our goal is to work toward a point where a suicide contagion model can lead to a rapid response aimed at preventing suicide,” said Katherine Keyes, Ph.D., co-author of the paper, professor of epidemiology and director of SPIRT, a new Columbia initiative that aims to catalyze public health research collaborations to better understand the mental health crisis and identify solutions.