The chance that Biden will withdraw from the presidential election is 40%, Stifel says

According to Stifel, there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election.

Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief policy strategist in Washington, is out with a research note calling it a “make or break week” for the president’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess.

“There’s a 60% chance, more likely than not, that he stays in,” Gardner told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves to prove the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So the more he hears voices from the elites he needs to get out, the harder he pushes.”

Gardner, who advises stock analysts on how White House policies could affect their coverage areas, thinks Democrats pushing for Biden to resign face a significant obstacle.

‘They have no influence. They can try to convince Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, but they can’t force him out,” Gardner told clients Monday. “It is a fantasy to think that at least half of Biden’s most committed supporters will turn against him and not vote to nominate him.”

While concerns about the president’s age have persisted during his latest bid for the Oval Office, poor debate performances in June have changed the tenor of the conversation. Polls and financial markets are beginning to reflect a shift in sentiment in favor of former President Donald Trump.

However, if Biden remains in the race, Gardner believes the Democratic Party could still see a favorable outcome.

“There is a certain level of voters who will never vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.