Way too early predictions for the second leg of the UCL after Manchester City draw Real Madrid, Bayern draw Arsenal

The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals got off to an exciting start on Tuesday as 10 goals were scored in two matches, each ending in a draw, ahead of some very important second-leg matches in a week.

Tuesday’s matches were perhaps the most anticipated matches of the quarter-finals and lived up to expectations in every respect. Real Madrid’s 3-3 draw against Manchester City looks set to go down as one of the Champions League’s best knockout matches, while Arsenal’s 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich did not disappoint despite the contrasting form of both teams on their way to the game. It commits to second legs that are destined to entertain thanks to the high stakes involved, even if they only provide a fraction of the drama that the first legs did.

Never will an eight-day wait for a series of matches feel as long as it does now, so as we leave the culmination of an epic day in the Champions League behind us, here’s a set of predictions for next week’s high-profile matches.

Fewer goals, but still enough

Let’s get one exciting prediction out of the way: there may not be as many goals in the second leg, as Tuesday’s games were an exercise in exceeding expected goals figures, but we won’t necessarily be short of them. Both City and Madrid are reliable to concede a goal or two every few games regardless of the opponent, but as Tuesday’s first leg proves, they are destined to do so against top-tier attacks. The same is very much true of Bayern Munich, who are in the midst of a disappointing season, but even Arsenal have shown some defensive instability despite strong performances at the back in recent weeks.

Each of these teams has at least one, if not more, goal scorer who can get the job done regardless of the game situation, as Tuesday’s games showed. The list of names on the scoresheets from both matches looks like an all-star cast: Phil Foden, Rodrygo, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka scored, while Vinicius Junior notched two assists. Expect at least some of them to have their say in the second leg, but it’s incredibly likely that each of them will also showcase their qualities next week.

Haaland remains absent

The theme of the evening at the Santiago Bernabeu was clearly scoring goals, but if one person didn’t get the memo, it was Erling Haaland. The truth is, he hasn’t been all that productive since returning from a broken bone in his foot in February. He averaged one goal per game beforehand and has since dropped to 0.81, while his expected goals are correct (1.07 to 0.79) and shots per game. game (4.57 to 4.27) have also fallen.

It’s not that he doesn’t score anymore, but he has become a little less reliable than he once was for City. The good news for them is that they are doing fine without him: one of the goalscorers, Foden, has now scored four goals in his last two starts and is their man of the moment. Pep Guardiola’s side could also do better if Kevin de Bruyne recovers from his illness and can play a big role next week.

Bayern gives Arsenal value for money

Bayern were far from dominant against Arsenal on Tuesday, but showed signs of life during a season in which they suffered one blow after another. Now that they can only compete in the Champions League, that may be all the encouragement they need to perform strongly next week, especially as it is the biggest game of their under-par season.

Kane has scored 39 goals in 38 games for Bayern this season and now has 15 in 20 games against Arsenal, so he could be good for at least one goal next week. The German champion also has a strong record at home in the Champions League this season. Apart from their 4-3 draw against Manchester United at the start of the season, they have only conceded once at the Allianz Arena.

Their fairly porous backline may ultimately not stand the test of Arsenal’s sometimes prolific attacking unit, including Saka and Leandro Trossard, but Tuesday’s performance showed they can at least run with them. The odds may be in the Gunners’ favor since they drew this Bayern team, but it won’t be a piece of cake.

Score predictions

• Manchester City 2, Real Madrid 2 (Manchester City goes to penalties)
• Arsenal 2, Bayern Munich 1 (after extra time)

Another pair of high-competition games looks likely, but the edge lies with the teams who are better positioned to put in a complete performance at this point in the season. Those happen to be the two remaining English teams, who can confidently progress to the semi-finals at the end of next week – but we might get some bonus football before they do.