Brutal new poll suggests Trump is done if convicted

A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows that after Trump’s trial, the vast majority of Americans believe he did something illegal or wrong, and that if he is convicted it will destroy his chances.

Quinnipiac University wrote about their poll:

Nearly seven-in-ten voters (69 percent) say they are following news about the trial very closely (34 percent) or somewhat closely (35 percent), while 30 percent say they are not following it very closely.

Six-in-ten voters (60 percent) think allegations of falsifying business records, including paying hush money to an adult film actress, are very serious (40 percent) or somewhat serious (20 percent), while 35 percent think the accusations are either not too serious (13 percent) or not at all serious (22 percent).

To receive more stories like this, subscribe to our newsletter The Daily.

Forty-six percent of voters believe former President Trump did something illegal, while 27 percent believe he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 18 percent believe he did nothing wrong.

Voters were asked how it would affect their vote if Donald Trump were convicted in the criminal trial in New York City. If Trump were convicted, 21 percent say they would be less likely to vote for him, 62 percent say it would make no difference to their vote, and 15 percent say they would be more likely to vote for him.

Five percent of Trump voters say if he were convicted they would be less likely to vote for him, 62 percent say it would make no difference to their vote, and 31 percent say they would be more likely to vote for him.

These numbers are cruel to Trump. Voters pay attention to the criminal process. Voters also don’t buy what Trump is selling about how the trial is a conspiracy orchestrated by Joe Biden. Only eighteen percent of voters believe Trump has done nothing wrong.

The message from this poll is that Trump’s strategy of claiming total innocence is not working.

Voters don’t believe his denials, and if Trump is convicted and automatically disfellowshipped by 21 percent of voters, it could prove fatal to his chances of winning in November.

The figure that should worry Trump and his supporters most is that 5% of his own supporters would abandon the ex-president if he is convicted.

Republicans and some in the media like to pretend that the process doesn’t matter or has no impact on the campaign, but the opposite is true. The Manhattan trial could be the one outside event that could reshape the trajectory of the rest of the presidential campaign.

Everything depends on the outcome of this trial for Trump and the Republican Party, and a conviction could end Donald Trump’s position in federal politics.

A special message from PoliticusUSA

If you are in a position to donate purely to help us keep PoliticusUSA’s doors open during a crucial election year, you can do so here.

We are honored to have put your interests first for 14 years because we are accountable only to our readers and we will not compromise on that fundamental, core value of PoliticusUSA.